Where does all this leave us? For one, you better hope and pray that AI delivers a magical transformation, because if it doesn't, the whole economy will collapse into brutal serfdom. When I say magic here, I mean it; because of the ~38T national debt bomb, a big boost is not enough. If AI doesn't completely transform our economy, the massive capital misallocation combined with the national debt is going to cause our economy to implode.
My summary: it's too big big to fail so let's transfer the risk on the taxpayer and if it fails anyway, let them eat cake. And by the way, that cake is a lie !
IMO, the backdrop to all of this is global warming. We're seeing so many warning signs and growth stagnating that governments need something, ANYTHING, to prop up their debt fueled economies and keep the music playing. In the face of impending GDP/population contraction due to global warming and the upcoming breadbasket collapses, GenAI isn't going to do shit for us. All of the money and effort being spent on it is money that could be spent on figuring out how to give our kids a glimmer of hope.
I'm honored that you would attribute my words to Jan :)
Honestly you don't have to believe me, I'm trying to make some things clear to drive change but if you don't want to take a critical look at the world around you and try to push for things to get better, that's your call.
I really feel like a leaf being blown over reading this stuff while planning on getting a Mortgage. Well, at least I have a rented roof over my head and eat every day. A lot of people can't afford that right now.
I still have the hope that the AI bubble will leave as a side effect a massive build-out of energy infrastructure: Nuclear, Solar and Natural Gas.
In my book, prosperity and progress is measured in Terajoules. If you have free, clean and abundant energy, you have industry, jobs, every fucking thing a healthy economy should want or need to have.
And on the other side, I think the Chinese are deluding themselves on robotics.
This talk of arms race with China is very, very dangerous. We need to start having a more important conversation if people really believe this because, otherwise, why shouldn't China just kinetically strike US infrastructure and vice versa?
If AI is an executioner's blow to your opponent by enabling you to dominate them in terms of hacking, economy, government, politics, etc. kinetic strikes are more than justified.
> Demand that the titans of tech change, and if they don't, stop feeding them your dollars.
Haha okay. Have you met people? Have you seen what they’re using it for? The users of LLMs do not care if they have to pay some
of their wages to avoid working and learning. Even if it means they will no longer receives wages (or even close to the same wages) in the long term.
I prefer to view people through a positive lens. I believe we are capable of living up to our lofty goals, and we should encourage each other to do that.
If it wasn't for AI investments, it's likely the United States would be in a recession right now.
So the biggest achievement of this amazing new technology is to artificially prop up Wall Street?
For those who can read the tea leaves --- it's absolutely a bubble --- a financial bubble.
The real reason why China is ahead in many areas is because their leadership is a little more technologically savvy and progressive than ours.
If this really is a pre-war economy, we have invested heavily in unproven tech which in my opinion is a risky move that leaves the US highly vulnerable.
If this is a pre-war economy, the US is screwed not because of AI but because we started a stupid trade war that's going to cut us off of our supply of dysprosium which is critical for defense manufacturing.
The US would only be screwed in that type of scenario if they allowed themselves to be. If things really got to that point they would just take over the deposits.
> Think of it like WWII, only only instead of planting victory gardens to beat the Nazis, we're building AI apps and finding ways to create the economic value needed to cover the reckless bets being made by the elites.
LOL fuck this, the stock market deserves to burn to the ground.
I'm anti-establishment because the establishment doesn't care about anyone but themselves. What are we doing all this work for? Progress would be getting universal healthcare for all in this country. Getting better work life balance. Being able to afford a home. Now it's just all the "haves" fighting bitterly to keep getting more and more until they have everything and nothing for anyone else.
That's one negative quality that Hacker News always had to me, compared to older hacker spaces such as newsgroups and Slashdot: The Petit bourgeois conformism and materialism. People always drunk the Venture Capital pseudo-libertarian cool-aid with too much enthusiasm here.
Being anti-establishment should not be viewed as a sin, unless in extreme cases.
I have noticed that it coincides with the re-election of a certain political candidate (He who must not be named).
The facade of "critical and rational thinker" has all but completely fallen away and this place has revealed itself for the true ideological echo chamber that it is.
While there are a lot of problems with the current market dynamics, burning it to the ground would cause a ridiculous amount of suffering. We need to spin up a new alternative then wind down the market gently.
The only problem is that the stock market is tied to a bunch of retirement/pension and other accounts. Yes stock market should burn to the ground but also I think pensioners and retirees shouldn’t be put out, just the finance bros and private equity folks which money is just a plaything.
that's been going on for decades, rinse and repeat
> AI is Too Big to Fail
Now invest in my Ai company, 100mil at 10bn valuation, can't fail, too big.
IMO, the backdrop to all of this is global warming. We're seeing so many warning signs and growth stagnating that governments need something, ANYTHING, to prop up their debt fueled economies and keep the music playing. In the face of impending GDP/population contraction due to global warming and the upcoming breadbasket collapses, GenAI isn't going to do shit for us. All of the money and effort being spent on it is money that could be spent on figuring out how to give our kids a glimmer of hope.
Yep, but instead of that we're wasting land, energy and resources in data centers that run "you are not the father" memes based on Sora 2.
Sure, Jan. We believe you.
I'm honored that you would attribute my words to Jan :)
Honestly you don't have to believe me, I'm trying to make some things clear to drive change but if you don't want to take a critical look at the world around you and try to push for things to get better, that's your call.
I really feel like a leaf being blown over reading this stuff while planning on getting a Mortgage. Well, at least I have a rented roof over my head and eat every day. A lot of people can't afford that right now.
Those who don't learn from... whatever, these clowns have it coming
"... but those who do learn from history are doomed to watch everyone else repeat it."
AI isn't going anywhere. It won't magically disappear, but that businesses are trying to use AI in situations that are unsustainable and unneeded.
The table of contents on the right blocks a good chunk of text. Safari on MacOS Sequoia
Thanks for the note, I'll look into how I can make it flow better with the document.
I still have the hope that the AI bubble will leave as a side effect a massive build-out of energy infrastructure: Nuclear, Solar and Natural Gas.
In my book, prosperity and progress is measured in Terajoules. If you have free, clean and abundant energy, you have industry, jobs, every fucking thing a healthy economy should want or need to have.
And on the other side, I think the Chinese are deluding themselves on robotics.
This talk of arms race with China is very, very dangerous. We need to start having a more important conversation if people really believe this because, otherwise, why shouldn't China just kinetically strike US infrastructure and vice versa?
If AI is an executioner's blow to your opponent by enabling you to dominate them in terms of hacking, economy, government, politics, etc. kinetic strikes are more than justified.
> Demand that the titans of tech change, and if they don't, stop feeding them your dollars.
Haha okay. Have you met people? Have you seen what they’re using it for? The users of LLMs do not care if they have to pay some of their wages to avoid working and learning. Even if it means they will no longer receives wages (or even close to the same wages) in the long term.
I prefer to view people through a positive lens. I believe we are capable of living up to our lofty goals, and we should encourage each other to do that.
Twice the pride, double the fall.
> The government is practically manufacturing a ponzi scheme and the losers will be anyone who doesn't own stock
*anyone American who doesn't own stock
If it wasn't for AI investments, it's likely the United States would be in a recession right now.
So the biggest achievement of this amazing new technology is to artificially prop up Wall Street?
For those who can read the tea leaves --- it's absolutely a bubble --- a financial bubble.
The real reason why China is ahead in many areas is because their leadership is a little more technologically savvy and progressive than ours.
If this really is a pre-war economy, we have invested heavily in unproven tech which in my opinion is a risky move that leaves the US highly vulnerable.
If this is a pre-war economy, the US is screwed not because of AI but because we started a stupid trade war that's going to cut us off of our supply of dysprosium which is critical for defense manufacturing.
Wouldn't the US be cut from the supply if there was a war, regardless of the current tariffs?
The US would only be screwed in that type of scenario if they allowed themselves to be. If things really got to that point they would just take over the deposits.
> Think of it like WWII, only only instead of planting victory gardens to beat the Nazis, we're building AI apps and finding ways to create the economic value needed to cover the reckless bets being made by the elites.
LOL fuck this, the stock market deserves to burn to the ground.
When did the HackerNews comment section turn into this? Low quality, aggressive, fervently anti-establishment.
I'm anti-establishment because the establishment doesn't care about anyone but themselves. What are we doing all this work for? Progress would be getting universal healthcare for all in this country. Getting better work life balance. Being able to afford a home. Now it's just all the "haves" fighting bitterly to keep getting more and more until they have everything and nothing for anyone else.
That's one negative quality that Hacker News always had to me, compared to older hacker spaces such as newsgroups and Slashdot: The Petit bourgeois conformism and materialism. People always drunk the Venture Capital pseudo-libertarian cool-aid with too much enthusiasm here.
Being anti-establishment should not be viewed as a sin, unless in extreme cases.
Anti-establishment is sort of a requirement for doing a start-up.
Aggressiveness is a requirement for doing a start-up in times of constrained capitalism
Low quality is driven the by the availability of capital for dumb ideas.
So... a while now?
These startups backed by venture funds are anti-establishment? Are you joking?
This is a core tenet of Startupist religious dogma. People really believe it.
I have noticed that it coincides with the re-election of a certain political candidate (He who must not be named).
The facade of "critical and rational thinker" has all but completely fallen away and this place has revealed itself for the true ideological echo chamber that it is.
While there are a lot of problems with the current market dynamics, burning it to the ground would cause a ridiculous amount of suffering. We need to spin up a new alternative then wind down the market gently.
The only problem is that the stock market is tied to a bunch of retirement/pension and other accounts. Yes stock market should burn to the ground but also I think pensioners and retirees shouldn’t be put out, just the finance bros and private equity folks which money is just a plaything.
Pensioners and retirees willingly dumping money into index funds without oversight are the dumb money that enables all of this.
So yes, they deserve a haircut.
Or perhaps we shouldn't have killed off the concept of pensions in the United States so we weren't all beholden to godforsaken 401Ks?
Deserve is a strong word.
We're talking about regular folks who want to do nothing else but secure their future in the face of a market that regularly tries to screw it up.
Can you explain why you suggest "deserve"?
Pensioners don’t have a choice where their stuff goes. A teacher or something simply doesn’t deserve that kind of hardship.
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